Medios AG

Medios: Six Quarters of Margin Expansion, Then a Margin Miss

Medios is Germany's largest specialty pharmaceutical distributor and a top-three European specialty pharma platform, with FY2025 revenue of €2.08bn (+10.4%) and EBITDA pre of €93.1m (+17.8%) at a 4.5% margin, expanded 30 basis points year over year. The 2026 guidance — revenue €2.0-2.12bn, EBITDA pre €94-102m at ~4.8% margin — implies continued mid-single-digit organic EBITDA growth and a credible multiple-expansion thesis against Fagron at ~9x forward EV/EBITDA versus Medios' ~4.5x on FY2026 guidance today. The bear case rests on Q1 2026's -7.9% EBITDA pre print, which arrived with a new CEO and CFO on the watch and a capital-markets narrative that the previous regime had not solved. We publish no rating; the question is whether the multiple rerates or the operating trajectory disappoints first.